FT article on Iraq's future

White House getting used to idea of Shia government
By Guy Dinmore in Washington
Financial Times. Published: December 2 2004 18:13 | Last updated: December
2 2004 18:13

As American troop reinforcements head to Iraq, the Bush administration is
slowly coming to terms with the realisation that elections scheduled for
next month could spell the end of Iyad Allawi, prime minister and the
secular US favourite, and usher in a quasi-theocracy.

Nothing is certain, not even the January 30 election date, yet there is a
growing expectation in Washington that a coalition dominated by religious
parties of the Shia majority is likely to emerge as the first Shia Muslim
government in the Arab world.

One US official, an expert on the Middle East, reflected on the unforeseen
consequences of last year's invasion.

"Now we are willing to countenance a limited theocracy in Iraq, limited by
a weak basic law that guarantees basic civil liberties," said the official,
who asked not to be named. "That was not the original idea."

The sweeping vision of neoconservatives of a secular, democratic Iraq that
would transform the political equation in the region and recognise Israel
had been shattered, said the official.

Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, a Shia cleric and leader of the Iranian-backed Supreme
Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Sciri), is one of several names
circulating in Washington as a likely prime minister. Others include Adel
Abd al-Mahdi, the current finance minister and Sciri member, and Ibrahim
al-Jaafari, the current vice president and head of the Shia Dawa party.

Some leading neoconservatives in Washington are dismayed at the weakening
of secular moderates by the persistent Sunni insurgency. Richard Perle,
former adviser to the Pentagon, says the big mistake was not to have
installed an early government of exiles.

Charles Krauthammer, a commentator, warned the Shia and Kurdish minority
that the US was not ready to fight "their civil war" against the Sunnis
indefinitely. The US wanted to "maintain this idea of a unified, non-ethnic
Iraq". "At some point, however, we must decide whether that is possible and
how many American lives should be sacrificed in its name."

Experts on Iraq and the Shia at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a
leading neoconservative policy group, are still upbeat.

They believe a Shia-led coalition that will oversee the process of writing
a constitution next year will remain democratic and make compromises.
Although religious, it will not be a theocracy because Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani, the most influential spiritual leader, will stay in the
background.

Despite the groups' ties to Iran and its Revolutionary Guards, they say
Sciri and Dawa are not beholden to the ayatollahs in Iran.

Michael Rubin, a former US adviser in Iraq and now an AEI analyst, predicts
a broad-based coalition with a "religious colouring".

Mr Allawi, whose party has not yet managed to form a coalition slate, is
likely to lose out, says Mr Rubin, who believes Central Intelligence Agency
polling data overestimate the popularity of their protégé.

"The Bush administration sees Afghanistan as a success story and wants to
replicate it, but Allawi is no Hamid Karzai," says Mr Rubin, referring to
the elected Afghan president.

Reuel Gerecht, a former CIA operative who joined AEI, believes the US
administration is prepared for a lot of Sunnis not to vote because of
intimidation or boycott. "But they are not fully prepared for the Shia
winning and Allawi possibly going down."

A Shia-led government would want US forces to continue fighting the Sunni
insurgents - until Iraqi security forces were trained in numbers.

Mr Hakim, recalls Mr Gerecht, encouraged President George W. Bush to stay
the course during their private meeting in the White House last January.

More problematic is the reaction of Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbours to a Shia
leadership in Baghdad. Officials say a flurry of meetings with Arab leaders
is aimed at gaining their acceptance of what the elections may produce
while encouraging the Sunnis to participate and reining in the ex-Ba'athists.

"The Jordanians and the Saudis are allergic to a Shia-dominated government
and are revolted at the prospect," says Mr Gerecht.

A conference at the US Institute of Peace, which is assisting Iraq, heard
from experts and senior US and Iraqi officials this week that election
preparations were on track in all but three provinces. More than 4,000
candidates have registered so far.

"It's time for these people to vote. And I am looking forward to it," Mr
Bush said in the Oval Office yesterday. "The elections should not be
postponed."

Ronald Schlicher, the State Department's co-ordinator for Iraq, said the US
would have to accept the results of a "credible" election.